Masters Picks 2027:
Betting Trends and What Wins at Augusta

When is the 2027 Masters?

The 2027 Masters runs Thursday, April 8 to Sunday, April 11, 2027, at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia. Augusta National sets its dates years ahead, and the PGA Tour's 2027 schedule lists the same four days.

Here's the full 2027 majors calendar, with the night each card drops:

Same time every week. The card covers every PGA Tour event, and the majors are no different.

Why is the Masters the biggest golf betting week?

Because the money shows up like no other week. Oddsmaker Jeff Sherman told Action Network the Masters draws about 50 times the betting handle of a regular weekly tour event. The other majors draw about 25 times.

Prediction markets feel it too. The 2026 Masters traded $545 million on Kalshi, a record for any sports event on the platform, per Covers. The market on who would win alone did $460 million.

What that means for you:

• The big names get hammered. Casual money piles onto the stars. That pushes their prices shorter than they should be.
• The side markets get less love. Books spend their time on the outright board. Top 20s, matchups and first round leader prices can be softer.
• There are more prices to shop. More books and markets post lines for the Masters than for any other week. One golfer can be +2500 at one book and +3300 at another. Always take the better number.

What are the best Masters betting trends?

Trends don't make picks. They tell you who to cross off. Here are the ones you can check.

First-timers almost never win

Only three players have won the Masters in their first try: Horton Smith in 1934, Gene Sarazen in 1935 and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, per Golfweek. No rookie has won since.

The PGA Tour adds that each of the 46 winners from 1980 to 2025 had played at least one Masters before. McIlroy, a past champion, made it 47 in 2026. Rookies can still contend. Ludvig Aberg finished second in his 2024 debut, per Action Network. But a rookie to win needs a big price to be worth it.

The favorite rarely wins

Since 2006, the betting favorite has won the Masters once: Scottie Scheffler in 2024, per the PGA Tour. Action Network notes he went in at 5 to 1 (+500) and was the first favorite to win since Tiger Woods in 2005.

In 2026, Scheffler was the pre-tournament favorite again. He finished second, one shot behind Rory McIlroy, who won his second straight green jacket, per the PGA Tour.

But the winner usually comes from near the top

"The favorite loses" does not mean "bet longshots." Covers found the winner closed at +1600 or shorter in six of the seven years from 2019 to 2025. The longshot run is mostly old news. From 2007 to 2012, five of six winners were +5000 or longer.

Here are the opening odds for the last 10 winners before 2026, from Covers:

Six of those 10 opened at +1600 or shorter. Four opened at +3000 or longer. So the sweet spot is not the favorite and not the 100 to 1 guy. It's the elite players just behind the favorite, plus a couple of live mid-priced names.

The math on a hit: $10 on Matsuyama at +6000 paid $600 profit. $10 on Scheffler at +500 in 2024 paid $50.

Winners are in the mix on Thursday

Since 2005, 18 of 19 winners were inside the top 10 after Round 1, per Action Network (through 2024). Augusta rarely lets a guy come from way back. That's one reason a first round leader bet on a strong player makes sense here.

Trends are a filter, not a pick

In 2026, the PGA Tour ran 11 trend filters to cut 91 players to one. The last filter knocked out McIlroy, because no defending champ had won since 2002. McIlroy won anyway. Use trends to trim your list. Then bet the price.

What kind of player wins at Augusta?

Augusta National played as a par 72 at 7,565 yards in 2026, with four par 5s: holes 2, 8, 13 and 15, per Golf News Net. Here's what tends to show up on the winner's scorecard.

• He scores on the par 5s. The par 5s are the easiest holes on the course. A CBS Sports study found nine of 11 winners from 2007 to 2017 got half or more of their under-par score on those four holes.
• He hits it long. 16 of the last 17 winners ranked top 50 in driving distance the year before, per the PGA Tour. Length means shorter clubs into those par 5s.
• He's striking it well right now. The same PGA Tour piece says each of the last 14 champions gained at least 18 shots tee to green over his four starts before the Masters.
• He's been here before. 26 of the last 28 winners had a top 30 at a past Masters, per the PGA Tour. And every winner since 1997 had a top 20 at some major first, per Action Network.
• He can putt fast greens. The greens are big and quick, and it pays to stay below the hole, per Golf News Net.

Now some plain golf sense, not a stat. To reach the par 5s in two, you need to hit long irons and hybrids high and soft onto firm greens. Miss a green and you face tight lies and steep slopes, so a good short game saves a lot of pars. Put it together and the Augusta winner is usually a long, great iron player with a calm putter and a few trips around the place.

How do you build a Masters betting card?

Build it like a budget, not a lottery ticket. Golf has long odds and cold stretches, even in the best weeks. Our golf betting strategy guide covers sizing in full. Here's the short version for Augusta.

1. Keep outrights small. Spread a small stake across three to five players. $10 at +2500 pays $250 profit, so you don't need a big stake for a big payout.
2. Make top 10 and top 20 bets the base. These cash more often. $20 on a top 20 at +200 pays $40 profit. Watch for ties, which cut payouts. Our top 10 and top 20 guide shows the math.
3. Add matchups. You only need your guy to beat one other guy. The rest of the field doesn't matter.
4. Take a shot on first round leader. It settles Thursday night, and the odds are long. See our first round leader guide for how ties and tee times work.
5. Know your each way terms. A few books pay places on the outright. Check our each way guide before you take it, since a separate top 10 bet often pays better.
6. Shop every price. On Masters week, the gap between books is real money.

Here's the shape of a sample card. It's a structure, not picks.

A unit is a fixed slice of your bankroll, like 1%. If your bankroll is $1,000, one unit is $10.

How do you bet the PGA Championship?

The 2027 PGA Championship is May 20 to 23 at Fields Ranch East at PGA Frisco in Texas, per the PGA Tour's 2027 schedule. It's a Gil Hanse design that has hosted the 2023 Senior PGA and the 2025 KPMG Women's PGA, per the PGA of America. 2027 is its first major on the regular men's tour.

What changes for bettors:

• No major course history. The course has never hosted a major on the regular men's tour. So current form matters more than past results at the venue.
• Watch the Masters hangover. The public bets whoever just won in April. If his price gets too short, let him go.
• Less money than Augusta. Sherman put the other majors at about half the Masters handle. Thinner markets can leave softer prices on top 20s and matchups.

How do you bet the US Open?

The 2027 US Open is June 17 to 20 at Pebble Beach Golf Links in California, per the PGA Tour's 2027 schedule.

The US Open is built to be hard. In plain golf terms: thick rough, firm greens and tough pins. Par is a good score on a lot of holes. At Pebble Beach, Tiger Woods won at 12 under in 2000, and Graeme McDowell won at even par in 2010, per the USGA. Same course, 12 shots apart. Weather and setup swing everything.

What changes for bettors:

• Bogey dodgers rise. Players who keep it in play and grind out pars tend to hang around.
• Top 20s and matchups shine. When birdies are scarce, the steady guys you trust in a top 20 bet are worth more.
• Expect chaos on the leaderboard. One bad hole costs more here. That's why outright stakes stay small.

How do you bet The Open Championship?

The 2027 Open is July 15 to 18 on the Old Course at St Andrews in Scotland, per the PGA Tour's 2027 schedule.

Two things make The Open different from every other major:

• The tee times are in the middle of your night. Recent Opens started at 6:35 a.m. local time. In 2023, that meant a 1:35 a.m. Eastern first tee shot, per Golf.com. If you wait until Thursday morning, Round 1 is already half done. Our card drops Wednesday at 8 PM ET, well before the first group goes off.
• The weather draw can decide it. Players split into morning and afternoon waves for the first two rounds. Wind can hit one wave and skip the other. At the 2016 Open at Royal Troon, the waves were 3.2 shots apart on average, and nine of the 11 players who finished tied for ninth or better came from the same side of the draw, per The Fried Egg.

So read the forecast and the tee sheet before you bet. A good player in the lucky wave is a better first round leader or matchup bet than a great player stuck in the wind. Links golf also rewards low ball flight and a creative short game, which is general golf sense, not a stat.

How do you get the card for every major?

The Fairway Insider card drops every Wednesday at 8 PM Eastern, the night before Round 1. Every PGA Tour week, all four majors included. You don't need to sign up for a special Masters package.

Here's what's on it:

• Outrights, top 5/10/20, matchups, 2-balls and 3-balls, and first round leader, plus parlays or specials when the price is there
• The odds and the stake in units for every bet
• A confidence rating from 1 to 3 golf balls
• Prices at every major sportsbook and prediction market (Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket) when you open a bet, plus a "Tail this bet" button to track it

The picks come from the Fairway Insider, a full-time golf bettor for 4+ years who works in golf and watches every shot of every round. Every official pick is graded in units, win or lose, on our public record page. Don't take our word for it. Judge it on the record.

Plans are $49 a month or $349 a year, which works out to about $8 a tournament on the yearly plan. Want a look at how we handle a normal week first? Check this week's golf picks.

One honest note. Golf betting has cold stretches, even for sharp bettors. There are no guarantees. Bet only with licensed, legal sportsbooks, and only if you're 21 or older.